Alexei Vedev’s Foreign Exchange Forecast

Alexei Vedev, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Head of the Financial Studies Department, Gaidar Institute told the АiF.ru which factors would underpin and weaken the Russian national currency in January 2022.

“The average price of oil is expected within the range of $70-$80 a barrel. Increased interest rates on deposits and higher yield on OFZ securities will facilitate demand for rubles. A traditional decrease in capital outflow in Q1 2022 will ensure stability of the Russian currency.

What can weaken the ruble in January? The effective fiscal rule will facilitate $6bn-$7bn worth of foreign exchange purchasing by the RF Central Bank on order of the RF Ministry of Finance. A somewhat pickup in demand for foreign exchange during New Year holidays will be a factor that is weakening the ruble in January.

The most likely scenario for January is the stable exchange rate in the band of Rb73-Rb47 per $1.