ALEXEI VEDEV: HOUSEHOLDS’ REAL INCOMES WILL NOT GROW THIS YEAR
Alexei Vedev, Leading Researcher of the Financial Studies Lab, the Gaidar Institute made a comment to the "Gazeta.Ru" in the publication: “Not to Die of Hunger: How Do the Russians Get Ready for the Winter”.
“If for the past six years [households’] real disposable incomes have been shrinking, this leads to the reduction of the consumer goods basket and cost cutting”, Alexei Vedev, Former Deputy Minister of Economic Development said to the "Gazeta.Ru".
As a consequence, the retail trade turnover is declining. It is to be noted that even in the official forecast for 2020 by the Ministry of Economic Development growth as regards the trade dynamics is expected to amount to the mere 0.6% year on year, that is, around zero, Alexei Vedev reminds.
In Alexei Vedev’s opinion, households’ real incomes will not increase this year and in H2 2019 their dynamics are going to be negative. It is already almost clear that there will be stagnation with households’ negative real disposable incomes and less than 1% GDP growth, the expert notes.
Households’ real incomes (households’ profit after mandatory payments made and adjusted to the rate of inflation — “Gazeta.ru”) have been falling for the sixth straight year. According to the Rosstat’s data, in 2014 they decreased by 0.7%, in 2015 — by 3.2%, in 2016 — by 5.8% and in 2017 — by 1.7%.
At first, the Rosstat reported a 0.2% decrease in incomes in 2018 and then, a 0.1% decrease. Later, the Rosstat adjusted the data in conformity with new methods and received a 0.1% growth in incomes.
Households’ incomes have kept falling in 2019, too. In H1 2019 households’ real disposable cash income fell by 1.3%. It happened despite positive dynamics of wages (growth of 1.8%) and pensions (0.8%).
As a consequence, the retail trade turnover is declining. It is to be noted that even in the official forecast for 2020 by the Ministry of Economic Development growth as regards the trade dynamics is expected to amount to the mere 0.6% year on year, that is, around zero, Alexei Vedev reminds.
In Alexei Vedev’s opinion, households’ real incomes will not increase this year and in H2 2019 their dynamics are going to be negative. It is already almost clear that there will be stagnation with households’ negative real disposable incomes and less than 1% GDP growth, the expert notes.
Households’ real incomes (households’ profit after mandatory payments made and adjusted to the rate of inflation — “Gazeta.ru”) have been falling for the sixth straight year. According to the Rosstat’s data, in 2014 they decreased by 0.7%, in 2015 — by 3.2%, in 2016 — by 5.8% and in 2017 — by 1.7%.
At first, the Rosstat reported a 0.2% decrease in incomes in 2018 and then, a 0.1% decrease. Later, the Rosstat adjusted the data in conformity with new methods and received a 0.1% growth in incomes.
Households’ incomes have kept falling in 2019, too. In H1 2019 households’ real disposable cash income fell by 1.3%. It happened despite positive dynamics of wages (growth of 1.8%) and pensions (0.8%).