Alexander Firanchuk, Senior Researcher at the Gaidar Institute’s International Trade Department, spoke to RBC about the impact of the conflict in the Persian Gulf on the global economy and the oil market.
According to the expert, despite geopolitical tensions, the global economy is now significantly better prepared for disruptions in energy supplies than it was a few years ago. This is due to accumulated stockpiles of raw materials and the willingness of major importers to use them to stabilize the market.
“The conflict in the Persian Gulf so far appears to be a temporary shock. The reaction of the global oil market has been much weaker than one might have expected based on the experience of past decades. Many countries had built up significant reserves of raw materials in advance, which helped keep prices from rising. Russia has benefited to some extent from a short-term increase in export prices; however, this effect is temporary and is unlikely to have a significant impact on the budget or the economy as a whole,” noted Alexander Firanchuk.
According to International Monetary Fund estimates, the conflict’s impact on the global economy remains limited, and in the absence of further escalation, its main consequences can be overcome within the next one to two years.