The share of direct supplies to Russia from unfriendly jurisdictions fell

The share of direct supplies in Russian imports from unfriendly jurisdictions decreased from 50–55% in the last pre-sanctions years to 16.6% in 2024. Experts emphasized that the share of unfriendly jurisdictions in Russian imports is minimal. Significant volumes of goods arrive through bypass trade, i.e. through neutral countries, often with a formal change of the country of origin.

The study also notes that China has successfully replaced the European Union in the supply of motor vehicles, mechanical equipment and other categories of machinery and equipment. However, in the most high-tech commodity groups — pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, aviation equipment — the growth of imports from China was insignificant. «The increase in vehicle shipments from China between 2021 and 2024 (+$21 bn) was double the pre-sanctions volume of vehicle imports from the EU ($10.6 bn). Similarly, the increase in imports from China offset the decline in European shipments of organic chemicals and footwear," the analysts summarized.

At the same time, the volume of pharmaceutical supplies from the EU to Russia remains at the pre-sanctions level of $9.3 bn in 2024 against $9.4 bn in 2021. «China is still an insignificant supplier of this category of products, with a supply volume of $107 mn in 2024," the experts concluded.