On November 18, 2020, experts of the Gaidar Institute presented their research findings and socio-economic forecasts for the near future at the International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting sponsored by the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IEF RAS).

Ilya Sokolov, leading researcher at Gaidar Institute delivered a report on the fiscal sustainability, trends and outlooks within the framework of the “Macrofinancial Analysis and Forecasting” session.

The speaker analyzed the aspects of government fiscal policy and noted that the worsening of the macroeconomic situation owing to the crisis led to growth in the budget deficit and public debt. Consequently, with the reduction in oil and gas revenues amid the explicitly inflexible pattern of federal budget revenues, there is an issue of amending the fiscal rule.

Presentation to the report

Within the framework of the “Macrostructural Analysis and Forecasting” session, Alexei Vedev, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Head of the Financial Studies Department, Gaidar Institute delivered a report in which he presented the scenario analysis of the mid-term development of the Russian economy (before 2023) amid negative shocks.

In his report, Alexei Vedev has noted that in 2020 Russia was affected by three external shocks: the coronavirus pandemic, a drop in oil prices, global economic recession and, as a consequence, the reduction in external demand. Owing to these factors, the monetary program has changed, too: the money supply volume increased on the back of public debt market expansion and growing demand for bank loans. Public debt rise was mainly determined by a spike in cash-in-hand flow and this can be regarded as a failure of the financial sustainability foundations.

Presentation to the report

Alexander Knobel, Head of the Foreign Trade Department, Gaidar Institute presented the report on the topic: “The Scenarios of Socio-Economic Development, Trade and Fiscal Policy in 2020–2023.” Alexander Knobel noted that the international context would have an impact on the forecast of the Russian economy development in the near-term. A particular attention was paid to trade and economic aspects of the balance of payments, the main instrument of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting.

Presentation to the report