The “Kommersant” provides an economic forecast for October. Sergei Drobyshevsky, Scientific Director of the Gaidar Institute, answered the editorial staff's questions about the future of US Dollar vs Ruble, changes of world oil prices, predicted inflation, and the behavior of US Dollar and Euro at the world currency market.

“The rate of exchange will be RUB 75–76 for one US Dollar. To-date, Ruble is about 7-10% below the fundamentally justified equilibrium level. This is due to the short-term effects of increased uncertainty in anticipation of the second wave of the pandemic and sanctions risks against Russia. In October, we hope these risks will begin to subside.

This month, seasonal factors will cease to be effective, and inflation is slightly accelerating compared to August-September. However, the demand remains weak, and this restrains the inflation, despite the effect of the Ruble devaluation in August-September that will be manifested in October.

The price of Brent oil will be $ 42-43 per barrel. The effect of restrictions adopted by OPEC+ member countries is accumulating, and even if the risks of a pandemic second wave persist and demand is slowly recovering, the equilibrium price will be in the range of $ 40–45 at the oil market, and a new round of falling prices can virtually be excluded.

“The Euro/USD exchange rate is rarely subject to sharp fluctuations during the month. Since major changes can take place only in November after the US presidential elections, I assume that the exchange rate of USD 1.17 - EUR 1.18 will remain.”