The aggregate index of leading indicators of the Russia’s economy increased by 0.4 points in June

Publication date
Monday, 11.08.2003



Moscow, August 11. INTERFAX – the aggregate index of leading indicators (AILI) of the RF economy calculated by the Development Center increased by 0.4 points in July (from 126.9 points to 127.3 points).
In the Center’s report it is noted that “although in this month only 2 of its 7 components positively affected the AILI (the ratio between the level of effective demand and the “norm” and oil prices), the record growth in internal demand permits to hope for the continuation of the economic surge.” Thus, the index “effective demand to norm,” according to the survey conducted by the Institute of Economy in Transition) increased from 24 per cent to 29 per cent in July, what resulted in an increase in AILI by 0.73. the increase in the average monthly Urals oil price by US $ 1.4 (from US $ 25.5 per barrel to US $ 26.9 per barrel) led to a growth in AILI by 0.64 points.
”On the whole, in July of 2003 the AILI dynamics give rise to hopes that the growth in the Russian economy will continue. In this connection, the record growth in the internal demand and the stable high level of oil prices are of special importance. The major threat to the growth is related to the growing competition on the part of imports due to the constant real Ruble appreciation” stressed the authors of the study.



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