Model Calculations of Short-Term Forecasts of Social and Economic Indices of the Russian Federation (August 2015)

Publication date
Wednesday, 28.10.2015

M.Turuntseva, E.Astafieva, M.Bayeva, A.Bozhechkova, A.Buzaev, T.Kiblitskaya, Yu.Ponomarev, A.Skrobotov

Model Calculations of Short-Term Forecasts of Russian Economic Time Series


This paper presents calculations of various economic indicators for the Russian Federation in the period from September 2015 to February 2016, which were performed using time series models developed as a result of research conducted by the Gaidar Institute over the past few years. A method of forecasting falls within the group of formal or statistical methods.


Summary table

Introduction to All the Issues  2
Industrial Production and Retail Sales  5
Investments In Capital Assets  6
Foreign Trade Indices  6
Dynamics of Prices  9
Monetary Indices  11
International Reserves  12
Foreign Exchange Rates  13
The Living Standard Indices  13
Employment and Unemployment  14
Annex  16


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