Model Calculations of Short-Term Forecasts of Social and Economic Indices of the Russian Federation (June 2015)

Publication date
Monday, 17.08.2015

M.Turuntseva, E.Astafieva, M.Bayeva, A.Bozhechkova, A.Buzaev, T.Kiblitskaya, Yu.Ponomarev, A.Skrobotov

Model Calculations of Short-Term Forecasts of Russian Economic Time Series


This paper presents calculations of various economic indicators for the Russian Federation in H2 2015, which were performed using time series models developed as a result of research conducted by the Gaidar Institute over the past few years.


Summary table

Introduction to All the Issues  3
Industrial Production and Retail Sales  6
Industrial production  6
Retail Sales  7
Investments in Capital Assets  8
Foreign Trade Indices  8
Dynamics of Prices  10
The Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Indices  10
The dynamics of the cost of the monthly per capita minimum food basket  10
Indices of Transport Tariffs  12
The Dynamics of World Prices on Natural Resources  13
Monetary Indices  13
International Reserves  14
Foreign Exchange Rates  15
Indices of the Standard of Living  16
Employment and Unemployment  16
Annex. Diagrams of the Time Series of the Economic Indices of the Russian  18


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