According to IET, in 2004 it is expected that inflation in the RF will be at 10.6 per cent, and GDP growth at 7 to 7.5 per cent

Publication date
Wednesday, 15.09.2004



Moscow. September 8. INTERFAX – AFI – It is practically inevitable that in 2004 inflation in Russia will exceed the target determined by the Government and make 10.6 per cent, while the growth in GDP in real terms is expected at the level of 7 to 7.5 per cent. This forecast was presented on Wednesday to journalists by Sergei Drobyshevsky, the head of the laboratory of monetary policy of the Institute for the Economy in Transition (IET).
He stressed that yet in July IET experts forecasted that inflation would be within the limits set in the Government estimates, i.e. at 9.5 to 10 per cent. At the same time, the dynamics of inflation rates observed in July and August demonstrated that this indicator was “out of the range of the trend” characteristic of the last years, when inflation rates declined during these months. According to Sergei Drobyshevsky, “these two months made us to review our estimate. It is highly probable that inflation will exceed the 10 per cent rate (this year – IF – AFI).”
According to Sergei Drobyshevsky, IET forecasts 8 to 9 per cent inflation rates next year, what in general corresponds to the Government prognosis.



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