PAVEL KOVAL SPOKE AT THE CONFERENCE IN HIGHER SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS

On May 25, Pavel Koval, Researcher, Macroeconomic Modeling Department of the Gaidar Institute, spoke at the 4th International Data Users Conference “Russian monitoring of households economic situation and health by HSE NRU».

He presented assessment of the role of permanent and transitive shocks in dynamics of consumption and households incomes in the Russian Federation from 1996 to 2016 for different households groups and accounting factors reducing sensitivity of consumption against income shocks.

Decomposition of consumption and income increment dispersions showed that the main source of variation was the transitive component. The sensitivity of current consumption against permanent shock of total income was 0.69, while transitive shock was 0.13. For medium-sized and rich decile groups, government transfers reduce the sensitivity of consumption against transitive income shocks, increasing thus the sensitivity of consumption of poor decile groups against both types of shocks.

There is a general development observed with regard to insurance mechanisms after 2011. According to overall selection, urban population have a higher insurance against transitive shocks compared to average households. Households headed by people having higher education predict permanent shocks better than others, thus, reducing their consumption sensitivity. Large and “elderly” households have reduced sensitivity against permanent shocks and increased one against transitive shocks.