Monitoring the situation on the oil market in H1 2026

In 2026, OPEC+ is counting on a managed adjustment to production and a transition to more objective criteria for allocating quotas through the introduction of a mechanism for assessing maximum sustainable production capacity, which will serve as the basis for setting production limits starting in 2027.Moreover, the market is adapting to structural shifts, including the UAE’s withdrawal from the agreement and increased sanctions pressure on the Russian oil sector, while institutional forecasts point to high price volatility and a gradual return to balance driven by production growth outside OPEC+ and the redistribution of logistics flows.