Industrial production dynamics in Q1 2026

The trend component of industrial production in the Russian Federation in Q1 2026 shows weak growth. In the extractive sector, there has been a decline in the production of both oil and associated gas, as well as in the production of thermal coal and anthracite, while natural gas production is on the rise. The trend in manufacturing is characterized by near-zero growth rates. The sharpest decline in the trend component is observed in metallurgical production and the production of other non-metallic mineral products due to reduced demand from the construction sector. In the short term, industrial production is expected to remain in a phase of stagnation. At the same time, a further decline in metallurgical production and the production of other non-metallic mineral products is forecast. Growth is expected in food and chemical production.