On November 11, Library on Gazetny hosted a public lecture titled “Chinese Fathers and Children: How China’s Demographics and Pension Policy Are Changing.” Angelina Shpilevaya, Researcher at the Mathematical Modeling of Economic Processes Department at the Gaidar Institute, explained how China transitioned from rapid population growth to population decline and why the demographic advantage that fueled the country’s economic rise is gradually becoming a thing of the past.
The lecture was accompanied by graphs and tables—ranging from historical trends in birth rates to the scale of pension programs in 2024. Together with the lecturer, the audience examined why China’s birth rate began to decline even before the introduction of the “one-child policy,” how the “Later, Less Frequently, Fewer” campaign worked, and why the lifting of restrictions did not restore the rates to their previous levels. Special attention was given to the sex ratio at birth, changes in the age of marriage and the birth of the first child, as well as the decline in the number of prospective mothers.
A significant portion of the meeting was devoted to the pension system. The lecturer highlighted the scale of China’s pension programs, the number of pension recipients and fund expenditures, regional disparities in payments under the resident program, as well as a gap in pension amounts reaching nearly 15 times. The lecturer explained how an aging population is changing the burden on public finances, how pensions are funded, and what effects raising the retirement age has. She also presented separate scenarios for pension expenditures with and without reform, as well as the dynamics of pensions relative to previous earnings.
We thank the audience for their interest and active participation in the discussion!
A recording of the lecture is available on the Rutube channel via this link.