Kirill Chernovol, Researcher at the Gaidar Institute’s International Best Practices Analysis Department, explained in a comment for Nezavisimaya Gazeta how the growth of marketplaces affects inflation and why online commerce intensifies competition in the consumer market.
According to the expert, marketplaces allow a greater number of sellers to enter the market and find buyers across the country. This intensifies competition with traditional retail and contributes to prices on many online platforms rising more slowly than in brick-and-mortar stores. As a result, the growth of e-commerce can have a dampening effect on inflation.
Today, online commerce already accounts for nearly one-fifth of the Russian retail market, and marketplaces themselves account for the bulk of online sales. According to an estimate by Kirill Chernovol, if prices on marketplaces rise even just one percentage point slower than in traditional retail, this could reduce overall retail price growth by approximately 0.16 p.p.
At the same time, the expert notes that temporary disruptions in the logistics infrastructure of marketplaces, including those caused by attacks on warehouses and distribution centers, could lead to localized price increases. However, in his view, such an effect will most likely be short-term and will manifest primarily in a reduced product selection, delivery delays, and increased costs for sellers.
“Marketplaces intensify competition by allowing small sellers to reach customers across the country. As a result, prices on online platforms often rise slower than in traditional retail, which helps keep inflation in check. Even if isolated disruptions in logistics temporarily increase sellers’ costs and lead to localized price increases, the impact of such factors on the economy as a whole will most likely remain limited,” noted Kirill Chernovol.