Russian industry entered a phase of stagnation in the second quarter of 2026, and the situation is unlikely to change in the near future. This is the conclusion reached by the authors of the report “Dynamics of Industrial Production in the Second Quarter of 2026,” which was cited by RBC in an article on the slowdown in industrial growth.
The study was prepared by Andrey Kaukin, Head of Industrial Organization and Infrastructure Economics Department at the Gaidar Institute, along with laboratory researchers Vladimir Kosarev and Anastasia Levchenko.
According to experts, the trend component of industrial production in Q2 virtually stopped growing. In the manufacturing sector, growth rates are near zero, while the extractive sector is seeing a decline in the output of oil, thermal coal, and anthracite. The most pronounced decline was observed in the production of coke and petroleum products, as well as machinery and equipment.
In the short term, analysts do not expect a noticeable acceleration. According to their forecast, the stagnation in industrial production will continue, with the extractive sector continuing to contract. Isolated areas of growth are expected in the production of electrical equipment and motor vehicles; however, for the latter sector, the low base will remain an important factor.
In its report, RBC cites data showing that over the first seven months of 2026, the industrial production index rose by only 0.1%, which also indicates virtually zero growth in the sector.
Separately, experts at the Gaidar Institute draw attention to the situation in the oil industry. According to OPEC data, oil production in Russia fell by 61,000 bbl/d in June compared to May, totaling 8.9 mb/d—below the OPEC+ production target. Analysts cite attacks on oil refining and transportation infrastructure as one of the limiting factors.
The full text of the report is available at this link.