Growth in GDP Will Continue in H2

According to the preliminary estimate of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, in the 1st half year of 2012 growth in GDP amounted to about 4.4% on the same period of 2011.

Generally, such assessments are expectable. In the 1st quarter, there was a positive dynamics on account of the external factor, that is, tangible growth in the export surplus.

In the 2nd half year, investments and households’ income grew significantly due to indexation of a pay of military servicemen and an increase in pensions.  Growth in households’ income steps up the domestic demand, thus, giving a boost to retail sales.

Though the industry’s dynamics is slowing down, it is within the admissible limits that ensure fulfillment of all the obligations as the primary sector is growing at an advanced rate.

It is difficult to say something specific about indices in the 2nd half year, but economic growth is expected to continue. The inflation index is to change, however, it is believed that, generally, indicators will not be lower than in the 1st half year. Probably, following performance over the year growth in GDP will be at the level of 4.5%. However, it is to be approached with cautious optimism.    

О.I. Izryadnova, Head of the Structural Policy Department