style="text-align: justify;">Russian foreign trade surplus rose by 14% in H1 2026, reaching $73.4 bn. Dmitry Kuznetsov, Researcher at the International Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute, spoke in an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta about the factors behind these changes in foreign trade and how its structure is evolving.
According to the expert, the growth in the surplus is primarily driven by an increase in export revenue, with exports growing slightly faster than imports. At the same time, Russian exports are gradually becoming more diversified. Shipments of mineral products increased by 9%, metals by nearly 25%, and food and agricultural raw materials by 26%.
“An important feature of the current trend is that export growth is not limited to fuel and energy commodities. While shipments of mineral products rose by 9%, exports of metals grew by nearly 25%, and those of food and agricultural raw materials by 26%,” said Dmitry Kuznetsov.
The growth in metal exports is linked to both increased shipments and favorable market conditions, particularly for copper and aluminum. In the agricultural sector, grain shipments: primarily wheat, barley, and corn have rebounded, and exports of oil and fat products, fish, and seafood have also increased.
Imports increased by 11% in the first half of the year. The main growth was in machinery, equipment, and vehicles. In particular, imports of automobiles and related goods from China rose by nearly $4 bn y-o-y. According to Dmitry Kuznetsov, the relatively strong ruble is driving imports, while the high key interest rate is holding back equipment purchases linked to investment activity.
Nevertheless, Russian foreign trade continues to reorient toward Asia: countries in the region account for about three-quarters of trade volume. The main trading partners remain China, India, Turkey, the EAEU countries, and the states of the Middle East.
Thus, export trends show growth in non-commodity shipments, although commodities continue to play a significant role in shaping the trade surplus.