In a comment to the Izvestia daily, Evgeny Goryunov, Head of the Gaidar Institute's Monetary Policy Department, assessed the latest inflation data and explained why a one-week price increase should not be taken as a sign of a change in the overall trend.
According to the expert, weekly statistics data are highly volatile, so it's premature to draw any sweeping conclusions based on them. However, if we evaluate the recent months’ dynamics, the rate of price growth is gradually declining.
“Weekly data isn't very reliable, so I wouldn't base any conclusions on it. Judging by monthly data over the past three months, the rate of price growth has been gradually slowing. Fuel prices, incidentally, have been rising quite rapidly, but the pace of price growth has slowed in recent months. In my opinion, the Central Bank of Russia's cut of the key rate is not related to current inflationary processes, but is rather a preemptive measure to curb a new wave of inflation that could arise if budget indicators fail to normalize," noted Evgeny Goryunov.
Also, Evgeny Goryunov emphasized that current weekly inflation fluctuations alone do not allow us to talk about the formation of a new sustainable trend and require an assessment over a longer time horizon.