Evgeny Goryunov, Head of Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute, assessed the possible trajectories of the ruble exchange rate in a comment to RBC.
The expert noted that the positive forecast of analysts participating in the Bank of Russia's macroeconomic survey could be adjusted toward an even greater strengthening of the national currency under certain conditions. An important factor here could be the cooling of the economy.
“This scenario, with a stronger ruble, for example, averaging 80 per dollar, is likely if the Bank of Russia maintains its tight monetary policy and there are no additional budgetary incentives,” said Evgeny Goryunov.
However, the expert considers this scenario to be an alternative. In his baseline forecast, he sees the exchange rate at the end of 2026 in the range of 85-90 rubles per dollar.