Evgeny Goryunov, Head of Monetary Policy Department at the Gaidar Institute, estimated the impact of the VAT increase on the inflation in Russia in a commentary for Izvestia. He confirmed that sharp price increase in early January was linked to the tax growth.
According to the expert, fiscal changes will continue to put pressure on prices over the next six months. "In total, the tax increase will add 1.2-1.7 p.p. to inflation by the end of the year. The overall effect on inflation is visible, but not critical. However, this means that the Central Bank's interest rate will remain elevated for longer," stated Evgeniy Goryunov.