Dmitry Kuznetsov: “Restoring trade with the US will not have a significant effect on the Russian economy”

According to the expert, even a comeback to pre-sanctions trade rates will not have a significant impact on the economy of Russia or the United States. Dmitry Kuznetsov noted that the US considers imports as a negative phenomenon and imposes tariffs even against allies. He also stressed that structure of Russian exports to the US until 2022, consisting mainly of oil, metals and fertilizers, is experiencing changes. “This reduces the prospects for export recovery,” the expert told.

Dmitry Kuznetsov also recognizes the potential for US companies in the Russian market. “Machinery and equipment, especially cars and aviation equipment, constitute evident areas of prospective demand on the part of Russian consumers. Given the dominance of Chinese car producers and lack of plans for return of European brands, the US companies may capture a prominent share of the market, expanding the choice and contributing to price reductions. These changes are unlikely to have a significant impact on the position of Russian manufacturers, as the market segments of American and Russian producers have little overlap. The competition in aviation is minimal, however, supplies of new airplanes are limited by long-term orders, therefore, in the short term, growth is possible only in the spare parts and maintenance segment, which will have a positive impact on the costs of Russian airlines,” the expert noted.

However, according to Dmitry Kuznetsov, the main obstacle to the inflow of investments from the US into the Russian economy, is the risks associated with guarantees of property rights. “Even the agreements in this sphere between the Russia and the US will not guarantee their safeguarding in case of a change of policy in the United States. Moreover, the Russian economy remains to stay under sanctions, which in one way or another affects the ability of companies to do business outside Russia and purchase required intermediate goods and equipment.
All this does not contribute to attractiveness of Russian companies for foreign investors,” the expert emphasized.