Diana Sinelnikova-Muryleva, Researcher of the International Best Practices Analysis Department at the Gaidar Institute, commented for Nezavisimaya Gazeta on growing cash volume in Russia and on the prospects of introduction of the digital ruble offline mode.
In 2026, the volume of cash in circulation in Russia increased significantly. According to the Bank of Russia, the increase totaled nearly Rb2.98 trillion between February and August, whereas the figure for the entire year of 2025 was Rb1 trillion. The largest monthly increase of the year was recorded in July at Rb643.4 bn. This figure dropped to Rb434 bn in August, and in September, Sberbank reported a halt in the rapid growth of cash in circulation.
The Bank of Russia attributes the rising demand for cash to mobile internet disruptions, holiday season, and people’s intention to keep a cash reserve in case cashless payment systems become unavailable. Additional factors may include lower deposit rates, changes in tax regulations, and the rising cost for businesses to accept cashless payments. In this context, the development of digital ruble, including the ability to use it without an internet connection, is becoming a key trend for adapting payment infrastructure.
However, technology for offline digital ruble transactions is currently under development. The Bank of Russia plans to prepare a consultation paper outlining the potential operating principles by late 2026 or early 2027. Specific technical solutions, limits on transaction amounts and volumes, and the timeline for implementing the offline mode have yet to be determined.
Digital ruble’s offline mode could indeed serve as an alternative to cash in situations where cashless payments are unavailable due to connectivity issues. However, it is important to understand that this addresses only one of the reasons why people prefer cash.
Choices made by individuals and businesses are also influenced by tax changes, stricter income monitoring, cost of cashless payment processing, and desire to manage one’s own liquid assets independently. Therefore, even after launching offline payments, digital ruble is unlikely to fully replace cash: while it may compete with cash, primarily in areas where absence of internet access remains a key constraint, it will not eliminate economic and behavioral drivers of cash demand," noted Diana Sinelnikova-Muryleva.
She believes that prospects for digital ruble depend not only on technological development but also on how convenient and advantageous it proves to be for everyday transactions. An offline mode could enhance the payment system's resilience to connectivity disruptions, yet it does not in itself guarantee a reduction in the volume of cash in circulation.