Diana Golovanova, Researcher of the International Best Practices Analysis Department at the Gaidar Institute, told NEWS.ru on the reasons for the rise in red caviar prices and changes in consumer demand.
According to the expert, the primary reason for the price hike is a sharp drop in the salmon catch. From the beginning of 2026 through September 24, Russia harvested approximately 98.000 tons of salmon, i.e., 3.4 times less than during the same period in 2025. Red caviar production this year is projected to reach around 4.000 tons compared to 12.600 tons in the previous year.
"The difference between the average price of red caviar reported by Rosstat and the cost of the new catch stems from the fact that statistics include stocks from previous seasons, which may still be selling at older prices. In contrast, caviar from the new catch enters the market at a higher price," explained Diana Golovanova.
She believes that rising prices are already affecting demand. Data from NTech shows that between January and September 2025, sales of red caviar fell by 45.1% in volume terms, while dropping by only 10.1% in value terms. This indicates that consumers are buying significantly less of the product but spending nearly the same amount on it.
Diana Golovanova forecasts that supply will remain below demand by the New Year, even when accounting for last year's inventories. However, no physical shortage is expected, as major retail chains and suppliers have built up the necessary stocks in advance. After the holidays, prices could drop by 5–15% as the surge in demand subsides and the need to clear remaining stock arises.
In the long term, if catch levels remain low, red caviar could settle into a higher price bracket, and per capita consumption may decline, the expert believes.