Denis Ternovskiy, Expert at the Economic Policy Foundation, commented for Nezavisimaya Gazeta on the report of the Ministry of Agriculture on the outcome of the state program for the development of agriculture and regulation of agricultural markets. The expert emphasized that farmers are facing new challenges that can affect the development of the industry.
"Over the last decade, the development of agriculture has exceeded the most ambitious expectations and plans. The industry is very inertial, and even the negative phenomena of several years can be smoothed by the general trend. With regard to public policy, the question is ambiguous: what aspirations it should meet — the industry or consumers of products, the entire population of the country. So far we see the game for the second side: domestic grain prices are regulated by export duties in favor of consumers through the main channel — the cost of flour, fodder and eventually meat. Naturally, this may not please farmers, who will be less active in increasing production or reduce it altogether. So far, this is hardly visible against the backdrop of the successes of previous years, but we are entering a new season with low world prices and a strengthened ruble, which does not give additional incentives.
The current agricultural year will show to what extent the industry will be able to hold its ground under these unfavorable conditions. Among other things, farmers are under pressure from the rising cost of agricultural machinery, including at the expense of recycling fees and the inevitable costs of the planned transition to domestic seeds and plant protection products. Optimism is given by the accumulated margin of stability: the production of major crops and products exceeds the needs of the domestic market, and we can expect that problems, if they arise, will primarily affect the export of agricultural products, not the domestic consumer", said Denis Ternovskiy.