Dear reader!

IET temporarily suspends publication of the Bulletin of model calculations of short-term forecasts of socio-economic indicators of RF.

This decision is explained by the fact that methods used for computing the model calculations of forecast values of socio-economic indicators of RF fall under the group of formal, or statistical ones, and the forecasts have an inertia-based nature, as the respective models take into account the dynamic of the data prior to the moment the forecast is built and they appear particularly strongly dependent on the trends characteristic of a time series in the period immediately preceding the time interval for which the forecast is built. Evidently, in the conditions of the emergence of negative processes in Russia’s economy and given the collapse of the trends in the dynamic of basic socio-economic indicators formed over recent years, this method does not allow receiving forecast values that would meet required criteria of accuracy.