Antonina Levashenko, Head of the International Best Practices Analysis Department at the Gaidar Institute, told "Pro Metall" publication about the consequences of American sanctions for copper, nickel and palladium market.
She estimated that tightening of trade restrictions could impact global metal prices and intensify market fragmentation according to geography.
As the expert noted, the new U.S. law expands the President's authority to impose tariffs on Russian products. Specifically, tariffs could reach as high as 500%, while duties of up to 100% are envisaged for goods from countries that continue to purchase Russian energy resources or facilitate the circumvention of certain sanctions. The specific consequences will depend on which rates and product categories the U.S. administration decides to target.
"Russian palladium imports remained a significant source, accounting for 36% of total US metal imports between 2021 and 2024. Should restrictions tighten, for instance, through higher tariffs, this could drive up global palladium prices, as US buyers and manufacturers risk losing a major source of supply," explained Antonina Levashenko.
According to the expert, tighter restrictions could accelerate division of the global market into a Western segment, where Russian metal faces limitations, and an Asian segment, where it will continue to circulate, including at a discount to maintain competitiveness.