Andrey Polbin, Head of the Mathematical Modeling of Economic Processes Department at the Gaidar Institute, spoke at a session of the all-Russia forum “Strategic Planning in Russia’s Regions and Cities” in St. Petersburg. Representatives from leading Russian research centers engaged in economic forecasting and modeling took part in the discussion. The central question of the discussion was whether artificial intelligence will replace traditional economic models.
In his remarks, Dr. Polbin emphasized that different classes of models are designed to address different tasks. According to him, econometric tools are particularly useful for assessing the current economic situation and making short-term forecasts. However, other models are needed to analyze the long-term consequences of government policy.
As an example, the expert cited efforts to promote the digitalization of manufacturing. He noted that in this case, it is important to consider not only the expected increase in productivity but also the demand for computing power, competition for investment resources, changes in the labor market, and the possible response of monetary policy.
Forecasting the consequences of introducing fundamentally new technologies presents a particular challenge, as historical data on similar processes may simply not exist. In such cases, simulation models capable of reproducing the interrelated reactions of economic agents are necessary.
