Alexey Vedev, Leading Researcher at the Financial Research Department of the Gaidar Institute, spoke to Vyberu.ru about the reasons behind the ruble’s current strengthening and the outlook for the foreign exchange market.
“The situation in the currency market is currently characterized by a high degree of manual intervention. If we follow the logic dictated by the balance of payments, the ruble could potentially strengthen to 40–50 rubles per dollar by summer,” noted Alexey Vedev.
According to the expert, the current budget rule and upcoming changes to the mechanism for funding the National Wealth Fund are playing a key role today.
Alexey Vedev also emphasized that Russia maintains a positive current account balance: exports continue to exceed imports, which supports the national currency’s exchange rate. However, as early as this summer, following changes to the parameters of the budget rule, a transition to a gradual weakening of the ruble is possible.
“The optimal forecast for the dollar exchange rate for the summer and through October is in the range of 75–85 rubles,” the economist believes.