World Market Outlook Promotes Trade Surplus Growth

The world market outlook still remains favorable for Russian exporters.

Thus, oil prices are still influenced upon by two main factors: political tension in the Middle East and the stats of the world economy. The average price of Urals for the period of monitoring from October 15 through November 14 was $108.8687 per barrel.

By the RF Government Resolution dated November 22, 2012, the export duty for Russian oil was cut from $4404.5 per ton in November 2012 to $396.5 per ton in December 2012. Preferential oil duty in December will be $193.3 per ton against $199.4 per ton in November.  In December, the duty for oil products except petrol will be $261.7 per ton against $267.0 per ton in November. Protective duty for petrol in the amount of 90% of the oil rate which was introduced by the Government since May 2011 to protect the RF domestic market in December 2012 will be $356.8 per ton against $364.1per ton in November.

Along with that, from the second half of 2011, the world market outlook on for non-ferrous metals keeps worsening: the metal reserves grew up, their use in the real sector of the economy fell, and the prices started to go down. After insignificant rise of prices for non-ferrous metals, they continued their downfall. In September 2012 this trend remained but there seemed to be a reverse in it. In spite of the fact that in September 2012, as compared to September 2011, prices for aluminum, copper and nickel fell respectively by 10%, 2.3% and 15.2%, they grew up, as compared to August 2012 by 11.9% for aluminum, by 9.9% for nickel, and by 7.6% for copper.

As a whole, the development of key indicators of the Russian foreign trade have different vectors. The Russian foreign trade turnover, calculated in accordance with the Balance of Payments methodology, was $70.9bln in September 2012, which is by 0.6% lower than the similar indicator of the last year. At the same time, in September 2012, export of goods from Russia grew up by 0.5% – up to $44 bln, as compared with the last September. The import of goods by Russia in September 2012, as compared with the similar period in 2011, fell by 2.3% – up to $26.9bln. Such behaviour of foreign trade indicators led to growth of export surplus which in September 2012 grew by 5.2% – up to $17.1bln, as compared to September 2011.

N.P. Volovik – Head of Foreign Trade Department