Vladimir Nazarov, Deputy Head of International Research Department of Health Care Economics and Health Care Reform of the Gaidar Institute, told AIF.ru what awaits the ruble in H1 2021, what factors will support the national currency and what month can be the most difficult for the ruble.

“The ruble will be supported by the same factors that began to operate in the last months of 2020. Among them:

- the expected recovery of the global economy and an increase in demand for resources support the prices for energy carriers and metals being dominant in the structure of Russian exports. Thus, according to forecasts of international organizations, prices for Brent oil will be above $ 50 per barrel in H1;

– the impact of geopolitical factors and, first of all, the sanctions policy towards Russia causing rapid changes in the foreign exchange market (however, in recent months this factor showed easing);

- positive news on the COVID situation is of particular note, specifically, the start of vaccination, which gives hope for restoration of the proper performance of the world economy. Among other things, this will result in purchasing of risky assets by investors around the world, at least in H1.

At the same time, the delicate balance among the abovementioned factors causing positive changes in the ruble exchange rate can easily be disturbed.

People looking for reliable ways of shaping savings should always follow one of the basic rules of financial literacy: an ordinary individual creates a multicurrency basket, primarily to preserve savings. It is extremely risky to engage in currency speculation, as there are simpler and more reliable instruments for investing aiming to multiply. If you nevertheless decided to keep part of your savings in foreign currency, it is wise to buy it systematically, in small portions, with a view to the long term”.