The Accumulated Inflation Rate Amounted to 5.7% from the Beginning of the Year

Continued growth in fuel prices in October, additional indexation of regulated tariffs in September and higher growth rates of price on food products contributed to the speed-up of the consumer inflation rate.


In the first half of October, the inflation rate did not slow down, and as of October 22 amounted to 0.5% in the past three weeks of the month (0.2% in 2011). In October, the main drivers of growth were food products which depended on the cost of grain (wheat flour +4.1% and millet +2.2%), as well as the price of petrol (+1.8%). Despite the record-high production of sunflower oil in September 2012 (an increase of 25% as compared to 2011), prices on it are going up fast: from October 1 till October 22 prices on sunflower oil rose by 3.5%. At the same time, a seasonal drop in prices on horticultural products continued:  potatoes (-3.7%) and cabbage (-9.2%).

Speaking about September, it is to be noted that the largest contribution to growth in consumer prices was made by prices on petrol (+2%) and housing and public utilities services (+2.4%). In the beginning of the academic year, the leader of growth in prices was education services whose cost increased straight by 5.1%. With a holiday high season being over, prices on recreation services fell by 2.6%, while those on passenger transport service and foreign tourism, by 2.8% and 1.4%, respectively. Also, prices on insurance services decreased by 0.1%.

Thus, as of October 22 the accumulated inflation rate amounted to 5.7% from the beginning of the year (4.9% in 2011). According to the estimates of the Gaidar Institute, by the end of the year the inflation rate will exceed the value forecasted by the Ministry of Economic Development and amount to 7%.

N.V. Luksha, PhD (Economics), Researcher of the Monetary Policy Department