SERGEY TSUKHLO: "AMID NEGATIVE MOMENTUM IN MAY, BUSINESSES HAVE REVISED THEIR RESERVE ESTIMATES"
Within three months of sanctions aggravation, the largest shortages of stocks of finished products in Russian industry were registered in the chemical, machine building and food industry. Sergey Tsukhlo, Head of Business Surveys Laboratory of the Gaidar Institute, spoke about it to Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
According to Sergey Tsukhlo, there are industries that are currently experiencing a surplus of finished products. Thus, for instance, the timber industry, which is "explained by the seasonal nature of the industry", or ferrous metallurgy, where "surplus inventories have been formed amid the curtailment of investment activity within the country and closure of traditional foreign markets."
The shortage of finished goods inventories, which emerged in the Russian industry back in August 2020, i.e. during the viral crisis, has smoothly spilled over into the sanctions crisis of 2022. However, now the shortages appear to have almost disappeared, according to surveys. "In regard of negative dynamics in May in both demand and output, companies have revised their inventory estimates, increasing the proportion of 'above normal' responses to a two-year high," the expert pointed out.
"The situation related to raw materials and supplies, however, has been "more difficult" in recent months: the deficit is larger and enterprises assess the situation more negatively. According to the Gaidar Institute, the shortage of raw material stocks in light industry is particularly significant: 56% of enterprises assessed them as "below normal" and only 44% as "normal". "No business in this sector now risks counting its stocks of raw materials as “above normal," said Sergei Tsukhlo.
Actually, the same industries that have also pointed to stocks of finished goods issues have their place in the anti-rating of raw material availability: the chemical industry, machine building and food processing. The surplus stock of raw materials in this case is also recorded in the Russian timber industry, and by the way, only in this sector.
The shortage of finished goods inventories, which emerged in the Russian industry back in August 2020, i.e. during the viral crisis, has smoothly spilled over into the sanctions crisis of 2022. However, now the shortages appear to have almost disappeared, according to surveys. "In regard of negative dynamics in May in both demand and output, companies have revised their inventory estimates, increasing the proportion of 'above normal' responses to a two-year high," the expert pointed out.
"The situation related to raw materials and supplies, however, has been "more difficult" in recent months: the deficit is larger and enterprises assess the situation more negatively. According to the Gaidar Institute, the shortage of raw material stocks in light industry is particularly significant: 56% of enterprises assessed them as "below normal" and only 44% as "normal". "No business in this sector now risks counting its stocks of raw materials as “above normal," said Sergei Tsukhlo.
Actually, the same industries that have also pointed to stocks of finished goods issues have their place in the anti-rating of raw material availability: the chemical industry, machine building and food processing. The surplus stock of raw materials in this case is also recorded in the Russian timber industry, and by the way, only in this sector.