SERGEY DROBYSHEVSKY: AN ECONOMIC FORECAST FOR AUGUST 2021

Scientific Director of the Gaidar Institute Sergei Drobyshevsky, in an interview with Kommersant, shared his economic forecast for the next month. He answered the questions as to what will be happening with the USD-to-ruble exchange rate, world oil prices, the inflation rate and the behavior of the US dollar and the euro in the world currency market.

“The exchange rate can fluctuate in the range of RUB 72–74 per US dollar. And, as before, the risk premium input will be very high due to the persisting geopolitical tensions and ongoing exchange of unfriendly rhetoric between Russia, on one hand, and the USA and the EU, on the other. Therefore, while the fundamental factors (oil prices) work towards strengthening the ruble, any new announcement at the political level could weaken the Russian national currency.

Monthly inflation will be near zero, or at 0.1–0.2%, that is, at its monthly minimum level for 2021. Firstly, seasonal inflation is traditionally low in August; and secondly, the effect of monetary policy tightening by the RF Central Bank will become stronger.

As far as oil prices are concerned, the price of Brent crude will move within the range of $ 73-75 per barrel. The achievement of a new OPEC+ deal, including with the participation of the UAE, demonstrated that the cartel is ready to continue to maintain prices at a comfortable level, while the rapid recovery of the global economy supports high demand for oil at the moment.

The euro exchange rate will be moving within the range of $ 1.185–1.19 per euro, and I do not see any significant factors that could affect this ratio in the coming weeks and months”.