SERGEI TSUKHLO: “THE INDUSTRY IS GOING TO COME OUT OF THE RECESSION”
The Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily presents the opinion of Sergei Tsukhlo, Head of the Business Surveys Department, Gaidar Institute that in August the Russian economy continued to come out of the coronavirus crisis of 2020.
As seen from the business surveys, optimism has started to outweigh pessimism for the first time since the beginning of the crisis. Enterprises report growth in demand on their products and increase output volumes. However, any changes in the foreign market environment or a threat of new sanctions against the Russian Federation may cool this business optimism.
“The prevalence of quite good demand growth rates amid minimum surplus of stocks of finished products and optimism growth in sales forecasts has underpinned the upward output trend and facilitated the retention of high optimism regarding output plans. By enterprises’ estimates, the renewal of the pre-crisis pattern of industrial growth limitations has begun”, Sergey Tsukhlo says.
However, businessmen’s individual positive sentiments have not spread to their investment plans yet.
“The industry’s investment plans recovered only by 25 points by August out of 40 points lost in April and remain in the negative zone. The industry is not prepared to invest yet amid its good provision with current output capacities and expected changes in demand”, the Gaidar Institute’s survey concludes.
“The prevalence of quite good demand growth rates amid minimum surplus of stocks of finished products and optimism growth in sales forecasts has underpinned the upward output trend and facilitated the retention of high optimism regarding output plans. By enterprises’ estimates, the renewal of the pre-crisis pattern of industrial growth limitations has begun”, Sergey Tsukhlo says.
However, businessmen’s individual positive sentiments have not spread to their investment plans yet.
“The industry’s investment plans recovered only by 25 points by August out of 40 points lost in April and remain in the negative zone. The industry is not prepared to invest yet amid its good provision with current output capacities and expected changes in demand”, the Gaidar Institute’s survey concludes.