The Radio “Ъ FM  has published an expert opinion of Sergei Prikhodko, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Executive Director of the Gaidar Institute on the scenario of the Russian economic development in 2023-2025.

At a joint meeting of the State Duma’s relevant committees on the main lines of the single state monetary policy in 2023-2025 on November 8, 2022, Elvira Nabiullina, Head of the Central Bank of Russia declared that the economic situation in Russia might worsen due to the effect of accumulated problems which would manifest themselves in full in 2023 amid economic restructuring. According to the regulator, overall GDP drop in Q3 2022 is estimated at 4%, while in Q4 2022 it may surpass 7%. As early as 2023, Russia will face challenges which will inhibit economic growth. They include the completion of the earlier concluded contracts without which it is highly problematic to stimulate growth, the need to maintain equipment as well as a consolidated effect of sanctions. However, according to Elvira Nabiullina the shock scenario is most unlikely as yet and the Central Bank of Russia is sticking to the baseline forecast of economic growth to resume as early as H2 2023 and the inflation rate to fall to 5%-7%.

Maksim Reshetnikov, Head of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation has declared that there are already signs of a slowdown in price growth. The current forecast of his Agency for this year is equal to 12.4%, but it may actually be less, Maksim Reshetnikov notes.

According to Sergei Prikhodko, there are few prerequisites for it. Numerous problems will manifest themselves only in 2023: “A crisis is gaining momentum all over the world. The inflation rate is growing both in the USA and Europe. In mid-term, we shall face a technological challenge. It concerns an enormous amount of equipment which indispensability is not so explicit for households as that of cars and planes, but for the business and industry a lack of such equipment is a serious challenge. As in case of planes, machinery and equipment need upgrading, maintenance and other, but it is problematic. If we speak about GDP statistical growth, an increase in military spending pushes this figure up. But it is the quality of growth that matters and we have problems with it.”