Russia’s industrial sector in H1 2013

Industrial production index stood at 100.1% in H1 2013 against H1 2012. Such a slow dynamics can be explained by stagnating industrial production in the first quarter and a growth rate increase as little as 0.3 p.p. year-on-year in the second quarter.

In June 2013, industrial indices stood at 100.9% on a year-on-year basis and showed lower values than in March thru May 2013.

Structural features of the industrial development have been governed this year by the nature of functioning of the mineral extraction sector. The output in the mineral extraction sector increased 1.0% in H1 2013 against H1 2012 in response to an increase of 102.3% year-on-year in growth rates to in the second quarter.

The manufacturing sector has been facing a very unfavorable situation: an increase of 1.2% in the production output in the second quarter was followed by a fall of 1.3% against the preceding year. As a result, at the end of H1 2013, the output in the manufacturing sector remained at the level of the preceding year. It should be noted that the manufacturing sector index has dropped over the past two months on a year-on-year basis: by 4.3% in May 2013 and 1.2% year-on-year in June 2013.


The machine-building sector has been facing the biggest fall of growth rates due to both sluggish investment activity and weaker domestic demand. In H1 2013, the output of motor cars accounted for 97.3%, cargo vehicles for 95.2% and buses for 97.1% of the production in H1 2012, thereby having an adverse effect on production dynamics in associated industries, especially in the metal production sector.


Ministry of Economic Development and Trade's forecast growth values can hardly be achieved even under the 'no change' scenario, given the industrial development level of the first half of the year.


O. I. Izryadnova, Head of Structural Policy Department