Model Calculations of Short-Term Forecasts of Social and Economic Indices of the Russian Federation (September 2015)

Publication date
Monday, 07.12.2015

M.Turuntseva, E.Astafieva, M.Bayeva, A.Bozhechkova, A.Buzaev, T.Kiblitskaya, Yu.Ponomarev, A.Skrobotov

Model Calculations of Short-Term Forecasts of Russian Economic Time Series


This paper presents calculations of various economic indicators for the Russian Federation in the period from October 2015 to March 2016, which were performed using time series models developed as a result of research conducted by the Gaidar Institute over the past few years. A method of forecasting falls within the group of formal or statistical methods.


Summary table

Introduction to All the Issues   3
Industrial Production and Retail Sales   6
Industrial Production    6
Retail Sales   7
Investments in Capital Assets   8
Foreign Trade Indices    8
Dynamics of Prices   10
The Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Indices   10
The dynamics of the cost of the monthly per capita minimum food basket    10
Indices of Transport Tariffs   11
The Dynamics of World Prices on Natural Resources   12
Monetary Indices   13
International Reserves    14
Foreign Exchange Rates    15
Indices of the Standard of Living   15
Employment and Unemployment   16
Annex. Diagrams of the Time Series of the Economic Indices of the Russian   18


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