Model Calculations of Short-Term Forecasts of Social and Economic Indices of the Russian Federation (September 2015)
Publication date
Monday, 07.12.2015
Authors
M.Turuntseva, E.Astafieva, M.Bayeva, A.Bozhechkova, A.Buzaev, T.Kiblitskaya, Yu.Ponomarev, A.Skrobotov
Series
Model Calculations of Short-Term Forecasts of Russian Economic Time Series
This paper presents calculations of various economic indicators for the Russian Federation in the period from October 2015 to March 2016, which were performed using time series models developed as a result of research conducted by the Gaidar Institute over the past few years. A method of forecasting falls within the group of formal or statistical methods.
Contents
Introduction to All the Issues 3
Industrial Production and Retail Sales 6
Industrial Production 6
Retail Sales 7
Investments in Capital Assets 8
Foreign Trade Indices 8
Dynamics of Prices 10
The Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Indices 10
The dynamics of the cost of the monthly per capita minimum food basket 10
Indices of Transport Tariffs 11
The Dynamics of World Prices on Natural Resources 12
Monetary Indices 13
International Reserves 14
Foreign Exchange Rates 15
Indices of the Standard of Living 15
Employment and Unemployment 16
Annex. Diagrams of the Time Series of the Economic Indices of the Russian 18
Full version
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