Model Calculations of Short-Term Forecasts of Social and Economic Indices of the Russian Federation (July 2015)

Publication date
Friday, 28.08.2015

M.Turuntseva, E.Astafieva, M.Bayeva, A.Bozhechkova, A.Buzaev, T.Kiblitskaya, Yu.Ponomarev, A.Skrobotov

Model Calculations of Short-Term Forecasts of Russian Economic Time Series


This paper presents calculations of various economic indicators for the Russian Federation in the period from August 2015 to January 2016, which were performed using time series models developed as a result of research conducted by the Gaidar Institute over the past few years. A method of forecasting falls within the group of formal or statistical methods.



Summary table

Introduction to All the Issues 3
Industrial Production and Retail Sales 6
Industrial Production 6 Retail Sales 7
Investments in Capital Assets 8
Foreign Trade Indices 8
Dynamics of Prices 11
The Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Indices 11
The dynamics of the cost of the monthly per capita minimum food basket 11
Indices of Transport Tariffs 12
The Dynamics of World Prices on Natural Resources 13
Monetary Indices 14
International Reserves 15
Foreign Exchange Rates    16
Indices of the Standard of Living  16
Employment and Unemployment  17
Annex. Diagrams of the Time Series of the Economic Indices of the Russian  19

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