On GDP Forecast Evaluations

According to the data of Rosstat, in the 1st quarter 2010 the GDP growth amounted to 102.9% against the rate of decline at the level of 90.6% in the same period last year. 


The main factor behind a renewal of positive dynamics is the dynamic growth in net exports. Such a limitation of fiscal support of the economy as was not compensated by measures which are aimed at overcoming stagnation in lending to the economy and households has resulted in rather restrained growth of the consumer demand (101.2% by the 1st quarter 2009) and prevalence of the trend towards reduction of investments in fixed assets (95.3%).

According to the scenario conditions of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, the base forecast of GDP in 2010 is estimated at the level of 4.0% with the growth of 2.9% in investments through expansion of public spendings for those purposes. In the worst-case scenario, depending on the level of oil prices (USD 76-79 a barrel) the GDP is expected to grow by 3.1% which situation can be explained by tougher limitations on government investments in 2010, while in the best-case scenario, the GDP is to increase by 4.5% thanks to higher prices on oil as compared to those of the base forecast.  

In development of both the scenario conditions and forecasts of the socioeconomic development of Russia in the next three years, the Ministry of Finance proposes to precede from the price of oil at the level of USD 70 a barrel.  

О.I. Izryadnova, Head of the Laboratory of Structural Problems of Economy