Olga Izryadnova, Head of Structural Policy Department, commented to “Vedomosti” on the updated forecast of socio-economic development, drafted by the Ministry of Economic Development.
The Ministry of Economic Development submitted to the government an updated forecast of socio-economic development, having significantly improved a number of indicators. If in May the Ministry estimated the decline in GDP at the year-end at 5%, now they believe that the decline will slow down to 3.9%. Then, the Russian economy will expect growth above 3% in the following 3 years.
The Ministry is also expecting improvement of other macro indicators. Thus, according to the Ministry, real disposable incomes will reduce to 3% instead of 3.8%, while real accrued wages even grow by 1.5%. Unemployment is expected at 5.7% similar to the forecast in May.
Olga Izryadnova believes that “results of H I provide enough grounds for optimism”.
“Despite extremely challenging environment, real accrued wages and real allotted pensions, demonstrated growth by 2.9% compared to H I, 2019. The government plan to support business, and lockdown measures differentiated by territories, made it possible to smoothly recover from the spring crisis and determined the format of action in the face of the 2nd wave of coronavirus infection”, the expert of the Gaidar Institute noted.