OLGA IZRAYDNOVA: “THE EXPECTED ECONOMIC RECOVERY WILL NOT MAKE UP FOR OVERALL LOSSES”
Olga Izraydnova, Head of the Structural Policy Department, Gaidar Institute has commented to the Expert-Ural on the stages of recovery of the Russian industry after the crisis.
In this crisis, the oil and gas sector has become the bottleneck of the recovery stage of the Russian industry. The manufacturing industry’s output decreased by the mere 3.3%, while in April manufacturing saw a drop of 10%.
“The reduction of the primary industries’ output was mainly driven by a decrease of 10.3% and 15.3% in oil and natural gas production as compared with Q2 and July 2019, respectively. It can be explained by Russia’s fulfillment of its obligations under the OPEC+ deal”, Olga Izraydnova believes.
According to the expert, the expected recovery of economic growth in H2 2020 is unlikely to be sufficient enough to make up for overall economic losses.
“The lengthy period of limitations on businesses’ and households’ activities affected the economy through postponed investment decisions and increased the risks of structural changes in GDP. Another important factor is the change in the foreign trade situation because of the reduction of the extent of trade in goods and services and failure by countries to network in value-added chains”, Olga Izryadnova summed it up.
“The reduction of the primary industries’ output was mainly driven by a decrease of 10.3% and 15.3% in oil and natural gas production as compared with Q2 and July 2019, respectively. It can be explained by Russia’s fulfillment of its obligations under the OPEC+ deal”, Olga Izraydnova believes.
According to the expert, the expected recovery of economic growth in H2 2020 is unlikely to be sufficient enough to make up for overall economic losses.
“The lengthy period of limitations on businesses’ and households’ activities affected the economy through postponed investment decisions and increased the risks of structural changes in GDP. Another important factor is the change in the foreign trade situation because of the reduction of the extent of trade in goods and services and failure by countries to network in value-added chains”, Olga Izryadnova summed it up.