NATALIA SHAGAIDA: “THREAT OF GLOBAL HUNGER CAUSED BY DRAMATIC DROP IN HOUSEHOLD INCOMES”
The “Expert” magazine quotes opinion of Natalia Shagaida, Head of Agrarian Department of the Gaidar Institute, as saying that the threat of global hunger is not related to possible food shortages, rather to a decline in the world population incomes due to a drop of economic activity during the pandemic.
In its first forecast for the 2022-2023 season this year the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA) estimated in mid-May that world wheat production alone could reach a record 789 mn tons, 13 mn tons more than in the current marketing year (from July last year to June this year). According to the FAS USDA forecast, a record consumption of wheat will be a record, i.e. at the level of 785.3 mn tons against 774.3 mn tons in the previous season. As before, Russia will supply a large volume of wheat, around 40 mn tons, which is 500.000 tons more than in the previous season.
"On the whole, no food shortage as such is expected this year, as the USDA's FAS forecasts confirm, despite poor crop prospects in the main producing countries: the USA, Canada and the European Union. World cereal stocks have been decreasing for 5 years, and it has not resulted in the famine. Its threat is more caused by a decrease in income of the world population due to a reduction in economic activity during the pandemic," says Natalia Shagaida.
According to expert, not only the poorest countries will be unable to buy as much food as they need, but people in western developed countries will now eat less because energy prices have almost doubled or tripled since the pre-pandemic period.
"On the whole, no food shortage as such is expected this year, as the USDA's FAS forecasts confirm, despite poor crop prospects in the main producing countries: the USA, Canada and the European Union. World cereal stocks have been decreasing for 5 years, and it has not resulted in the famine. Its threat is more caused by a decrease in income of the world population due to a reduction in economic activity during the pandemic," says Natalia Shagaida.
According to expert, not only the poorest countries will be unable to buy as much food as they need, but people in western developed countries will now eat less because energy prices have almost doubled or tripled since the pre-pandemic period.