Maria Kazakova: Lack of fundamental growth factors represents key reason for current economic recession in Russia

On 4 May Maria Kazakova, head of the budget sustainability department, participated in the regular FBC meeting on "Compare Forecasts". The participants discussed reviews of Russia's 2015 economic development forecasts made by various organizations.

As Gaidar Institute expert underlined the fact that structural factors were at the care of the current economic recession (absence of fundamental growth factors, including labor, capital and productivity). These structural factors were strained in the wake of unfavorable geopolitical and foreign economic conditions. At the same time, hypothetical improvement of terms of trade, i.e. oil price rebound to the pre-crisis level (which is not feasible), will not result in high growth rates due to the fact that the impact of oil prices on the economy dwindle with time. At present rapid economic growth requires to take more serious steps (such as structural reforms which are frequently mentioned). However, they are not envisaged by the anti-crisis plan submitted by the government.