Industrial Production Is Slowing Down across All Parameters

In industry, the key indicators, such as demand, output, prices, are slowing down again.


Employment is also going down – employees leave due to low salaries, and there is no confidence that even stagnating output volumes will get sufficient personnel Industrial optimism index shows that there is no positive mood in industry.

The demand for industrial products also keeps going down. At the same time, the benchmark demand data show its rate slowing down intensively down to -19 points. More intense reduction of sales in the wake of an acute phase of the crisis was registered only in January in 2010, 2011, and 2012. However, clearance of the seasonal effect smoothed this slump and showed the fall only to -15 points. Thus, the October result turned out to be a bit better than in the failure-like July 2012. The lack of positive changes in the demand increased dissatisfaction with its volume. As of today, there are 49% of "below standard" marks. And the best result of the year (41%) was registered in April.

The demand dynamics does not look optimistic either. The benchmark data have worsened by 11 points, and those cleared away from the seasonal effect – went down by 7 points and became negative again. In industry (according to all data) anticipated sales decline dominate over anticipated growth.

The drop in sales was followed by that of products output which is practically the only indicator the analysts and officials have to judge about the state of affairs in industry. The benchmark rate of this indicator's change lowered to -7 points. More intensive drop for the last three years was registered only in January of 2010, 2011 and 2012.

In October, Russian industry kept on losing personnel. In 2012, this process started as early as in June and reached its peak in July and in September -October. Anticipated employment changes became negative in June, and in October, they reached the levels of November, 2009–2011. Industrial enterprises will keep on losing their staff.

The enterprises stopped being satisfied with such a situation. Firstly, in the second half of 2012, the personnel shortage became the reason for 30% of enterprises to cut industrial output. Secondly, at the end of 2012 the supply of personnel for enterprises fell. Currently, there are more industrial enterprises with the lack of personnel than with its redundancy.

At first, the last values of indicators mentioned seem to be within the frames of values usual for the last time. But taking into consideration the behaviour of industrial key indicators, the personnel issue will look differently. Two years ago the industry reported about the highest rates of demand and the output growth after the 2008-2009 crisis. Now the situation is quite different: the demand and output do not grow. Index of optimism demonstrates that the industry is less optimistic. The prognoses again demonstrates the growth of pessimism. Industry loses the personnel and confidence in finding personnel to support even such small output volumes.

S.V. Tsukhlo – Candidate of Economic Sciences, Head of Business Surveys Laboratory

See the details in the Bulletin Rossiyskaya Promyshlennost v Oktyabre 2012g. (Russian Industry in October 2012 ).