IGOR YEFREMOV WARNED ABOUT THE THREAT OF CRISIS AT THE “MARRIAGE MARKET”
According to “Nezavisimaya gazeta”, the country managed to gradually improve the ratio of men and women in younger age groups. Igor Yefremov, Researcher of the International Research Department of Political Demography and Macrodynamics of the Gaidar Institute, expressed his opinion that the popular problem "there is no one to marry" among Russian women would be greatly exacerbated as a result of this year's events.
"The gender ratio at birth for the population as a whole demonstrates approximately the same level, i.e. about 106 newborn boys per 100 girls. Then as we grow up and get older, this ratio first aligns, and later women will dominate," explained Igor Yefremov. The age when women begin to numerically outnumber men in the society depends on a number of direct and indirect factors. First and foremost, this is the difference in mortality rates between the genders, the expert noted.
"For many decades, Russia demonstrated one of the largest gaps in the world in mortality and life expectancy between men and women. This is the outcome of a severe social disadvantage, primarily of men," the Gaidar Institute expert pointed out. The main causes of relatively young male supermortality in the Russian Federation have been and remain primarily alcohol, smoking and unsafe behavior according to Igor Yefremov.
However, since the mid-2000s there have been some improvements. Although Russian men still show excessively high mortality rates, the age when mortality gap starts to expand rapidly compared to women began to shift steadily.
"If in a modern developed society (excluding the migration factor) the gender ratio is shifting in favor of men, this is certainly a positive sign, which reflects the accelerated reduction of male supermortality," said Igor Yefremov. He believes that Russia is still far away from countries demonstrating high life expectancy, however, it is impossible to deny the tremendous progress in this area in recent years.
The emerging positive trend in Russia has different reasons. Firstly, there are generational changes, such as: culture, education, workplace, lifestyle. Secondly, it is “the state policy to regulate the main factors of premature excess mortality in Russia, implemented since 2006, resulting in the high decline of availability (both price and physical) and, consequently, the prevalence of alcohol, tobacco and other harmful substances.”
However, amid current special operation, mobilization and emigration, the positive trend may be reversed. On the one hand, it is extremely difficult to predict the scale of the impact of these three factors on the country's gender ratio in the coming years, Yefremov says.
Furthermore, there is a risk that the events of 2022 will be accompanied by a general deterioration of the economic and social environment. "The prevalence of life-threatening behavioral practices among men may start to rise again, as it already happened in the 1990s and early 2000s," admits Igor Yefremov. Then the existing progress in narrowing the mortality gap between the genders will come to a halt.
However, according to author’s clarification, a reversion to the levels of the early 2000s won’t happen even in this case. Hence, the situation at the so-called marriage market is likely to worsen. "Despite the numerical superiority of young males, females in Russia face increasing challenges to find a decent partner to start a family. This is, inter alia, due to the fact that women in Russia are more educated on average compared to men, and at the same time wish to spend their lives with a person having equal or higher social capital and education," said Igor Yefremov. He predicts that due to events of this year, the popular problem of "no one to marry" among Russian women will be greatly exacerbated.
"For many decades, Russia demonstrated one of the largest gaps in the world in mortality and life expectancy between men and women. This is the outcome of a severe social disadvantage, primarily of men," the Gaidar Institute expert pointed out. The main causes of relatively young male supermortality in the Russian Federation have been and remain primarily alcohol, smoking and unsafe behavior according to Igor Yefremov.
However, since the mid-2000s there have been some improvements. Although Russian men still show excessively high mortality rates, the age when mortality gap starts to expand rapidly compared to women began to shift steadily.
"If in a modern developed society (excluding the migration factor) the gender ratio is shifting in favor of men, this is certainly a positive sign, which reflects the accelerated reduction of male supermortality," said Igor Yefremov. He believes that Russia is still far away from countries demonstrating high life expectancy, however, it is impossible to deny the tremendous progress in this area in recent years.
The emerging positive trend in Russia has different reasons. Firstly, there are generational changes, such as: culture, education, workplace, lifestyle. Secondly, it is “the state policy to regulate the main factors of premature excess mortality in Russia, implemented since 2006, resulting in the high decline of availability (both price and physical) and, consequently, the prevalence of alcohol, tobacco and other harmful substances.”
However, amid current special operation, mobilization and emigration, the positive trend may be reversed. On the one hand, it is extremely difficult to predict the scale of the impact of these three factors on the country's gender ratio in the coming years, Yefremov says.
Furthermore, there is a risk that the events of 2022 will be accompanied by a general deterioration of the economic and social environment. "The prevalence of life-threatening behavioral practices among men may start to rise again, as it already happened in the 1990s and early 2000s," admits Igor Yefremov. Then the existing progress in narrowing the mortality gap between the genders will come to a halt.
However, according to author’s clarification, a reversion to the levels of the early 2000s won’t happen even in this case. Hence, the situation at the so-called marriage market is likely to worsen. "Despite the numerical superiority of young males, females in Russia face increasing challenges to find a decent partner to start a family. This is, inter alia, due to the fact that women in Russia are more educated on average compared to men, and at the same time wish to spend their lives with a person having equal or higher social capital and education," said Igor Yefremov. He predicts that due to events of this year, the popular problem of "no one to marry" among Russian women will be greatly exacerbated.