GDP Growth in 2011 May Exceed 4%

According to official assessment given by the Chairman of the CBR, Sergey Ignatiev, GDP growth may exceed 4% by the end of the year.

Economic recovery is taking place with outstripping growth rates in the manufacturing sector against extraction of mineral resources. Despite the accelerated growth rates of manufacturing sector, increasing volumes of import have a significant impact on the structure and dynamics of recovery growth.

Analysis of economic performance regarding foreign and domestic demand demonstrates exceptionally high dependence on foreign economic factors. The lack of significant structural reforms, ratchet development both of export-oriented sectors and sectors oriented on final demand based on extensive use of the main factors, high share of imports on domestic market resources represent factors of deep systemic crisis of 2008–2009 and determined the low competitiveness of Russia’s economy during 2009–2011 recovery growth.
In this regard, problems of modernization and diversification of production aimed at increasing the share of domestic goods on domestic market take paramount importance regarding increase of recovery growth.

О.I. Izryadnova – Head of Structural Problems of the Economy Department