GDP dynamics in Russia

Following the results of Quarter III of 2009, the Russian GDP has reduced by 8.9% as compared with the relevant period of 2008. According to the Russian Federal State Statistics Service, the Russian GDP downgrading has become the most significant among the BRIC countries and the G8.

This is due to the deeper and extended reduction of domestic demand for investment and consumer goods at the background of more extended term of tight credit constraints, lower real incomes and wages, as well as high inflation rate.

There is no growth of industrial production recorded within January-September 2009 in any country. As of the first 9 months of 2009, the leading place in terms of production decrease among the BRIC countries and the G8 takes Japan (26.5%) and Italy (20.1%).

In Russia, the industrial output during the reporting period has decreased by 13.5%, including the downfall in processing industry by 19.1% and in mining industry - by 3.0%. Both, in processing and in mining industries, positive dynamics was recorded for the second consecutive quarter as compared with the preceding quarter, which has determined the weakening of decline in comparison with the IV-the quarter of 2008 – six months of 2009.

According to the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, the Russian GDP in 2009 will make 91.5% of the previous year indicator.

The IMF forecasts the downfall of the Russian GDP by 7.5% within 2009 and its increase by 1.5% in 2010. According to IMF experts, Russian GDP growth within the next year will be contributed by the beginning of economic recovery and prices growth for raw materials.

O.I. Izryadnova, Head of Laboratory for Economic Structural Problems