Dynamics of the Main Economic Indices of Russia in January–April 2010

In January–April 2010, the economic situation in Russia was characterized by a renewal of the domestic business’s activities and the solvent demand.  


In 2010, positive dynamics of virtually all the types of economic activities have been registered. In January–April, the output growth in industry amounted to 6.9% as compared to the same period last year, including 6.3% in the primary sector and 8.3% in manufacturing industry. An absolute increase in production volumes has determined expansion of the demand in services of natural monopolies. The cargo turnover increased by 12.4%, including that of railway service by 14.3%, while production and distribution of power, gas and water rose by 6.0%.  

The crisis as well as recovery trends in the Russian economy have highlighted once again vulnerability of the export-primary products model of development. The net export is still the main factor behind economic growth. In the 1st quarter 2010, trade balance increased by 150% as compared to the same period last year with exports and imports growing by 61.6% and 18.4%, respectively.  

In the period of exit from the crisis, there is still a gap between the financial sector and the real sector.Stagnation of the banking and credit sector, problems with debt restructuring and slowdown in reduction of the interest rates could not but have a negative effect on investment activities. In January–April 2010, investments in fixed assets decreased by 2.3% as compared to the same period last year.  

An indirect signal of the much-expected revival of activities in the building sector in the summer-autumn period was the growth in production of building materials and individual types of vehicles and building equipment. Such a growth was registered for the first time this April after a large-scale drop in production outputs late in 2008 and early in 2009. In the 1st quarter 2010, the average provision of building organizations with orders amounted to four months, while that of large ones, to six months. In the 1st quarter 2010, the index of business confidence increased by 2 percentage points as compared to the same period last year. 

О.I. Izryadnova, Head of the Laboratory of Structural Problems of Economy