Alexey Vedev mentioned goods whose imports to Russia will fall

Vladimir Putin, addressing the Federal Assembly, called for no more than 17% of GDP to be imported by 2030. Alexey Vedev, Head of the Financial Studies Department at the Gaidar Institute, talking to MK.RU mentioned goods whose imports to Russia will fall.

“In Russia the share of import in the GDP was always sufficiently stable, maintaining at the level of 20-21%. The fluctuations were mainly determined by the dynamics of exchange rates,” Alexey Vedev noted. The same can be said about the structure of imports, which has not changed for many years: 30% were final consumption goods (food products), 30% belonged to investment goods (raw materials, equipment, production lines), 40% were components (household appliances, electronics, cars), what is called “industrial assembly.” Apparently, the share of the latter in imports will decrease in volume, as the first two categories are sacred.”

As for high-tech industrial products manufactured in the West, it is either impossible or extremely problematic to find adequate substitutes for them in Russia, believes an expert from the Gaidar Institute. There is an alternative: either we will have to look for analogs in the countries of Southeast Asia or try to import original equipment to Russia from the same Europe to circumvent sanctions. In principle, there is still time until 2030: it is possible to avoid forcing the task of reducing the share of imports in GDP from the current 19% to 17%, and it is not a quick process in any case.